Regarding prize for Summer Event winner

VersaLicious · **Joined:** Oct 2007 **Posts:** 281 **Location:**

I got around 40~70 tickets.
There r like 10k players on venus at least 7k of em have been to CTF and all got a few tickets, which gives me a minimal chance of winning >_<
so technically, each player of the 7000 gets a 0.0142% per each ticket used to win one of the 6 items. (1/7000)(100) = 0.0142%
knowing that there r 6 prizes, he gets a 0.0852% total of winning (0.0142%)(6) = 0.0852%

So, assuming that I opened 40 tickets, I get a 0.568% of wining one of the 6 items ( means I get a 3.04% in total to win), which is relatively small, AlbelNox said he opened about 500 tickets, which gives him a 7.1% to win one of the 6 items (means he gets 42.6% in total to win), which is an extreemly good chance. (lets all jinx him so maybe he won't win)

Assuming albel actually wins, lets measure the amount of gold he spent on these tickets compared to the price of the SOX he is gon win(mentioning that he bought all of the 500 tickets) tickets range from 400 ~ 4 mill (400k, 800k, 1 mil, 2 mil, 3mil and 4 mil, these r the most common prices I think) in the stall network.

In order for me to calculate an average price, I will have to know the exact prices of each of the 500 tickets he bought, add them togather and divide by 500....so, forget about that, lets assume the average is 2.5 mil (unless u know a more accurate method to get an average for variables)

(500)(2,500,000) = 1,250,000,000 <---- the approximate price for the tickets, the actual number shud be around this (I am guessing less)
a lvl 76 SOS +5 weaker than a 85+5, so unless Albel wins a SOM or SUN, given that there r only 2 SOMs and only one SUN he gets a 21% in total (knowing that Albel already has a couple of +7 2h, also I am not really sure how strong is a 76 SOM + compared to a lvl 85 +)

still, doesn't mean he's gon win, a guy who only used on ticket can still win it, the question is, is it really worth it risking 1 bill for a 21% for wining when a a guy with 1% can win?

Edit: by "ticket" I mean subscription card and
Edit: by "items" I mean SOX prizes
Edit: plz correct me if there r any mathematical mistakes

Phix · **Joined:** Mar 2008 **Posts:** 716 **Location:** Ephesus

Toasty wrote:

i think i got like 5.

thats 2 more then i got ^^

PureStr · **Joined:** Nov 2007 **Posts:** 1244 **Location:** GTA5

VersaLicious wrote:

0.0142% chance per ticket

Thats if all people only have 1 ticket.
But people all have more than 1, lets say everyone has 15 tickets.
100 / (7000 * 15) = 9.5^-4 or 0.00095% or 1/105000 chance per ticket.
Which is more realistic.

_Creep_ · **Posted:** Wed Sep 24, 2008 10:57 pm

VersaLicious wrote:

I got around 40~70 tickets.
There r like 10k players on venus at least 7k of em have been to CTF and all got a few tickets, which gives me a minimal chance of winning >_<
so technically, each player of the 7000 gets a 0.0142% per each ticket used to win one of the 6 items. (1/7000)(100) = 0.0142%
knowing that there r 6 prizes, he gets a 0.0852% total of winning (0.0142%)(6) = 0.0852%

So, assuming that I opened 40 tickets, I get a 0.568% of wining one of the 6 items ( means I get a 3.04% in total to win), which is relatively small, AlbelNox said he opened about 500 tickets, which gives him a 7.1% to win one of the 6 items (means he gets 42.6% in total to win), which is an extreemly good chance. (lets all jinx him so maybe he won't win)

Assuming albel actually wins, lets measure the amount of gold he spent on these tickets compared to the price of the SOX he is gon win(mentioning that he bought all of the 500 tickets) tickets range from 400 ~ 4 mill (400k, 800k, 1 mil, 2 mil, 3mil and 4 mil, these r the most common prices I think) in the stall network.

In order for me to calculate an average price, I will have to know the exact prices of each of the 500 tickets he bought, add them togather and divide by 500....so, forget about that, lets assume the average is 2.5 mil (unless u know a more accurate method to get an average for variables)

(500)(2,500,000) = 1,250,000,000 <---- the approximate price for the tickets, the actual number shud be around this (I am guessing less)
a lvl 76 SOS +5 weaker than a 85+5, so unless Albel wins a SOM or SUN, given that there r only 2 SOMs and only one SUN he gets a 21% in total (knowing that Albel already has a couple of +7 2h, also I am not really sure how strong is a 76 SOM + compared to a lvl 85 +)

still, doesn't mean he's gon win, a guy who only used on ticket can still win it, the question is, is it really worth it risking 1 bill for a 21% for wining when a a guy with 1% can win?
You have to much free time.

Edit: by "ticket" I mean subscription card and
Edit: by "items" I mean SOX prizes
Edit: plz correct me if there r any mathematical mistakes

foudre · **Joined:** Jul 2007 **Posts:** 3604 **Location:**

the event ran for 3 weeks, 12 ctf a day = 36times 7 = 252 ctf events minus 6 for server inspections (cutting off 2 ctf a week) = 246 ctf events times times 8 assuming full 8 man parties won 2016 maximum subscription cards per server times about 10 for how many games run at once 20160 cards apox max per server,

realisticaly alot of games end in ties or glitches infact so cut out about 20% of that number now figure in dcs and people who leave after mobs are dead so cut out about another 20% of members in ctf, 20160 * .8 *.8 = 12902.4 cards so lets round down to 12900 probable cards max

so i used 2 cards apox 0.000155 = 0.0155 % for me so i got a 1 in 10,000 chance of winning so still more likly then me getting a sun weapon drop

assuming only like 10 ctf happen at once average

VersaLicious · **Joined:** Oct 2007 **Posts:** 281 **Location:**

PureStr wrote:

VersaLicious wrote:

0.0142% chance per ticket

Thats if all people only have 1 ticket.
But people all have more than 1, lets say everyone has 15 tickets.
100 / (7000 * 15) = 9.5^-4 or 0.00095% or 1/105000
Which is more realistic.

yea, the calcuation is right, I just dunno why I need that number (9.5^-4)?
does it mean that if the 7000 peeps got 15 tickets, they all got a 0.00095% chance to win one of the 6 prizes?I still dunno how it's relevant

if u didn't understand my calculation, here is how I thought of it, I wanted to find out the % of each person out of a 7000 to win a single prize, which will automatically tell me the % of each card to win.

one prize / 7000 = 1.42^-4, multiply by a 100 = 0.0142%, so, if each person subscribed once, he gets a 0.0142% of geting a single prize out o 6...I hope this helps u understand

foudre wrote:

the event ran for 3 weeks, 12 ctf a day = 36times 7 = 252 ctf events minus 6 for server inspections (cutting off 2 ctf a week) = 246 ctf events times times 8 assuming full 8 man parties won 2016 maximum subscription cards per server times about 10 for how many games run at once 20160 cards apox max per server,

realisticaly alot of games end in ties or glitches infact so cut out about 20% of that number now figure in dcs and people who leave after mobs are dead so cut out about another 20% of members in ctf, 20160 * .8 *.8 = 12902.4 cards so lets round down to 12900 probable cards max

so i used 2 cards apox 0.000155 = 0.0155 % for me so i got a 1 in 10,000 chance of winning so still more likly then me getting a sun weapon drop

assuming only like 10 ctf happen at once average

u forgot a crucial fact, there is about 10 CTFs running @ the same time, that's true, however, there is like 10 CTFs running @ the same time for people @ the same lvl...I'm not sure how joymax classified them, but they were like 5 stages of different lvls (20~35, 35~50, 50~6x, 6x~7x, 7x~90, I am not sure of the lvls @ all), which means that 20160 cards, shud be multiplied by 5, I think.

I'm not sure how u came up with 0.000155 based on ur pervious calculations tho.

foudre · **Joined:** Jul 2007 **Posts:** 3604 **Location:**

VersaLicious wrote:

PureStr wrote:

VersaLicious wrote:

0.0142% chance per ticket

Thats if all people only have 1 ticket.
But people all have more than 1, lets say everyone has 15 tickets.
100 / (7000 * 15) = 9.5^-4 or 0.00095% or 1/105000
Which is more realistic.

yea, the calcuation is right, I just dunno why I need that number (9.5^-4)?
does it mean that if the 7000 peeps got 15 tickets, they all got a 0.00095% chance to win one of the 6 prizes?I still dunno how it's relevant

if u didn't understand my calculation, here is how I thought of it, I wanted to find out the % of each person out of a 7000 to win a single prize, which will automatically tell me the % of each card to win.

one prize / 7000 = 1.42^-4, multiply by a 100 = 0.0142%, so, if each person subscribed once, he gets a 0.0142% of geting a single prize out o 6...I hope this helps u understand

foudre wrote:

the event ran for 3 weeks, 12 ctf a day = 36times 7 = 252 ctf events minus 6 for server inspections (cutting off 2 ctf a week) = 246 ctf events times times 8 assuming full 8 man parties won 2016 maximum subscription cards per server times about 10 for how many games run at once 20160 cards apox max per server,

realisticaly alot of games end in ties or glitches infact so cut out about 20% of that number now figure in dcs and people who leave after mobs are dead so cut out about another 20% of members in ctf, 20160 * .8 *.8 = 12902.4 cards so lets round down to 12900 probable cards max

so i used 2 cards apox 0.000155 = 0.0155 % for me so i got a 1 in 10,000 chance of winning so still more likly then me getting a sun weapon drop

assuming only like 10 ctf happen at once average

u forgot a crucial fact, there is about 10 CTFs running @ the same time, that's true, however, there is like 10 CTFs running @ the same time for people @ the same lvl...I'm not sure how joymax classified them, but they were like 5 stages of different lvls (20~35, 35~50, 50~6x, 6x~7x, 7x~90, I am not sure of the lvls @ all), which means that 20160 cards, shud be multiplied by 5, I think.

I'm not sure how u came up with 0.000155 based on ur pervious calculations tho.

2/12900

i'm guessing total about 10 total not 10 per level bracket cause if there aren't enough people for another game they just dc instead of playing 10 games at once may be a bit low but say you got if you're luck 1 game for first bracket 2 for 3rd and 4 for 4th and fifth brackets i'm estimating 10 games average at once which may possibly be a little low, but i doubt its 10 for each bracket, but I think you're way over estimating how many games are happening

Nocks · **Posted:** Thu Sep 25, 2008 9:18 am

All this math for nothing. The people who will get the SoX will get them. Even if they had 0.002% chance while some other guy had a 2% chance.

foudre · **Joined:** Jul 2007 **Posts:** 3604 **Location:**

Nocks wrote:

All this math for nothing. The people who will get the SoX will get them. Even if they had 0.002% chance while some other guy had a 2% chance.

let us argue over statistics that wont' affect the outcome

PureStr · **Joined:** Nov 2007 **Posts:** 1244 **Location:** GTA5

VersaLicious wrote:

one prize / 7000 = 1.42^-4, multiply by a 100 = 0.0142%, so, if each person subscribed once

Yeah but people didnt subscribe only once....
Maybe if you read my post correcly.

VersaLicious wrote:

does it mean that if the 7000 peeps got 15 tickets, they all got a 0.00095% chance to win one of the 6 prizes?

My calculation was for the sosun only.
So peeps got 0.00095% * (Number of tickets you own) chance to win the sosun.
(Of course thats if everyone has 15 tickets, but we know most peeps have more, so the real chance would be less than 0.00095% per ticket)

PureStr · **Joined:** Nov 2007 **Posts:** 1244 **Location:** GTA5

SilkroadOnlineHimself wrote:

Regarding prize for Summer Event winner Sep 24, 2008
Hello. This is Silkroad Online.

Prize for Summer Event that has ended this week will be provided to the winners in October.

We will make an anouncement again before the provision of prize for Summer Event.

Today is the last inspection of october, so far i dont see anthing on the website that lets us beleive we will get them.
Will joymax fail once more ? We will see.

Orotiagito · **Joined:** Aug 2006 **Posts:** 799 **Location:**

PureStr wrote:

SilkroadOnlineHimself wrote:

Regarding prize for Summer Event winner Sep 24, 2008
Hello. This is Silkroad Online.

Prize for Summer Event that has ended this week will be provided to the winners in October.

We will make an anouncement again before the provision of prize for Summer Event.

Today is the last inspection of october, so far i dont see anthing on the website that lets us beleive we will get them.
Will joymax fail once more ? We will see.

We'll get them announced eventully...but I doubt it'll come in this inspection

xKingpinx · **Joined:** Aug 2007 **Posts:** 2153 **Location:**

lol i bought at least 100 cards or more... i hope i win ! atleast sos.. haha

Quintus · **Joined:** Sep 2006 **Posts:** 299 **Location:**

Turks get the suns. End of story.

Extrme_G · **Joined:** Oct 2007 **Posts:** 748 **Location:**

Extrme_G wrote:

Regarding prize for Summer Event winner Sep 24, 2008
Hello. This is Silkroad Online.

Prize for Summer Event that has ended this week will be provided to the winners in October.

We will make an anouncement again before the provision of prize for Summer Event.

any1 know this gonna be in 2008

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